Newcastle Vs Sunderland: Who has the better team?

Newcastle host Sunderland on Sunday afternoon in what will be the 146^th Tyne Wear Derby. The form book can often be thrown out of the window when it comes to these sorts of games, but out of the 2 top North East teams, who is stronger?

Newcastle had a flying start to the season managing 11 games without defeat, before finally falling at the hands of Man City. At our peak, we sat in 3^rd and up until recently looked like we could pose a serious threat to the top 4. Since our defeat at the Etihad, our form has lacked any real consistency, picking up back to back wins only twice, and winning only 5 of a possible 14. Victories against the likes of Manchester United have shown that when on form, we have the quality to threaten, whilst heavy defeats to Fulham, Norwich and Tottenham illustrate that defensively we can be very poor when rattled. Currently sitting in 6^th but with tough games against Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and City still to come, hanging on to 7^th place and with it, European qualification, would be a massive achievement for a team that was in the Championship 2 seasons ago.

Sunderland meanwhile, have fared rather oppositely. After an appalling start to the season under Steve Bruce, they sat in 16^th place, just 2 points above the drop zone when he was sacked in November. Since Martin O’Neill’s arrival, they have looked a different team, winning 7 of their last 12, including a famous 1-0 against Manchester City. In doing so, Sunderland have climbed from relegation candidates, to European contenders, now sitting in 9^th place. Poor recent performances against both Arsenal, and most recently West Brom, have led to suggestions that O'Neills honeymoon is over, though it is unlikely that any of the players will be keen for a repeat of the 4-0 drubbing they received last weekend.

Player-Wise, Newcastle have shown that quality can be bought on a budget, with Davide Santon and Yohan Cabaye both impressing in their first seasons of English football. It is Demba Ba, however, who has surprised the most. With his 16 goals for the season, he his only bettered by Wayne Rooney and Arsenal frontman Robin Van Persie. Signing on a free in the summer, Ba has proved to be excellent value for Newcastle and has alerted some of Europe’s top clubs. The addition of Papiss Cisse in January saw us strengthen the front line further. As to whether his big money move from Germany will pay off is yet to be seen, but with a good record for Bundesliga basement boys, Freiberg, he certainly looks promising.

For Sunderland, much investment was made in the summer, as the likes of Seb Larsson, Conor Wickham, Nicklas Bendtner, John O’Shea, Wes Brown and Craig Gardner all joined, in attempt to take Sunderland from perennial mid-tablers, to top 6 European contenders. After several injuries, they have been forced to play much of the season with attacking midfielder Stephane Sessegnon as their solitary forward, although the return of an in-form Fraizer Campbell in recent weeks has increased their chances in front of goal. James Mclean was another new signing in the summer, tipped to only play a role in the reserves this year. However, after a string of good performances it appears that the Mackems may have unearthed a gem, with the young Irish winger showing promising ability in his opening 10 games for the club.

If pushed, I would probably be biased and say Newcastle are the better team. Strength in depth is somewhat of an issue for both teams, with each side looking stretched at times throughout the campaign.  Currently, Sunderland have the better form, although home advantage and a habit of winning over the neighbours may aid Newcastle in attempting to extend our unbeaten run against the Mackems at St James’ Park, stretching back to 2001.

Why Ashley won't invest in January

January has rolled round again, which for football fans means only one thing- the transfer window. It’s well documented that for big clubs, the transfer window is a time in which they can strengthen their teams and attempt to improve before the title race begins in earnest in the second half of the season. For smaller clubs however-and with Ashley’s chequebook seemingly glued tight I’m classing Newcastle as one- January is nothing but a time of panic. Players who have performed well are attracting the attention of bigger clubs, whilst managers and scouts desperately try to bring in cover should their star men choose to leave for bigger things.

After a strong start to the season, Newcastle have plenty of players in the shop window, and with many of the league’s elite browsing for reinforcements, it would be no surprise if, as with last January, Newcastle ended the month big player lighter. Cheick Tiote, Tim Krul and Fabricio Coloccini are the three names his time round that have been heavily linked with moves away from St James’ and with the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United supposedly interested, it would be hard to see Newcastle turning down offers, should they come in.

After a strong start to the season, Newcastle have struggled of late, winning only 5 points from a possible 24 since of defeat at Manchester City. After showing very impressive early form, the thought of European football next year looked a very realistic possibility, but after this poor run of form, achieving is looking somewhat more difficult.

The question now is whether Ashley is going to fully back the team, through heavy investment in an attempt to maintain our European ambitions; or whether he is quite happy to have Newcastle sitting in mid-table, floating in mediocrity-not going to get relegated, but at the same time with no real chance of anything higher than average.

From his point of view, I could see why both views might be attractive. Think about it- if he were to put a substantial amount of money into the club for transfers- say £50m- the result could go either way. Either the team would be strengthened and as a result strengthen out grip on 7^th and even pull back ground on the teams above, or the investment could go to waste and Newcastle could continue to lose ground on those around us.

Look at Villa under Martin O’Neill a few years ago. They spent a huge amount of money, buying some of England’s best youngsters in an attempt to break the big four. In his four years there he guided them to three consecutive 6^th placed finishes, but could grab that elusive top four spot. He left under a dark cloud after rows with Randy Lerner, over guess what- Lack of transfer funds.

Granted the big four has now become more of a big 6, but the point still stands. To me, at the moment, Ashley sees us as safe- we aren’t going to set the world on fire any time soon, but we also won’t get relegated. He could risk pouring in millions of his own money, but for what? At the moment we sit seventh, and with all of the 6 teams above  spending considerably every year, it would only be an investment of 100’s of millions, rather than 10’s, that would ever see us break into that top 6.

As it is, I think Ashley is more than happy for us to continue as we are- mediocrity. He has an incredible scout in Graham Carr, who has the canny knack of finding players for a few million that later down that line multiply in value. For Ashley, the system works. It Tiote were to be sold this transfer window for example, the replacement- if there was a replacement- would more than likely cost between 3 and 5 million- less than quarter of what Tiote is worth if you believe the papers. It’s a much lower risk scheme than used to be in operation when Shepherd was in charge. If a player that cost a couple of million is a flop, then he can probably be sent back to Europe for a couple of hundred thousand less than what he was bought for, and the club move on to other targets. If united were to pay £10m+ on a player and he flops- it loses the club millions.

 

Quotes from Pardew and co. are already somewhat starting to mirror the Summer, with Llambias saying on the radio in November that a striker was needed in January. Since then, Steven Taylor’s injury has meant that the priority is now a centre back, but surely if the MD wants a striker then Newcastle get a striker, right? Well according to Pardew, not.  The likelihood is then, that we will see one player come in in January, perhaps two should Chelsea or United come knocking for Tiote, but we almost definitely won’t see the likes of Samba of Giroud arriving.

From Ashley’s point of view the gamble probably isn’t worth taking.